308500+ entries in 0.184s
mircea_popescu: bit by bit works, but by invalidating
THAT, and sorted in order of importance.
mircea_popescu: so far, i'm not as much as able
to distinguish
this from "here's my facebook clone", honestly.
wywialm: PeterL, yes -
the full documentation will appear on
the website
PeterL: perhaps it would be better
to write up a full description instead of
trying
to string it out bit by bit?
mircea_popescu: you can't say you designed something and
then keep pulling items from your sleeve as discussion of your design progresses.
wywialm: in fact,
the 10% maintenance margin is illustrative only
mircea_popescu: and
the "how i picked 10%" is a
testament
to
the whole "copying big boys"
thing.
there's a reason
they use
the magic numbers
they do.
mircea_popescu: not
that you ever explained in your design description what "maintenance margins" are, but
this is a magic
trick without substance : if you need
to move 5%
to break you'll move 5% and if you need
to move 15% you'll move 15%.
wywialm: large here means 'large relative
to maintenance margin percents', so our size doesn't matter much in
this case. if
the maintenance margin is 10%
then
this means
that a 10% price jump won't hurt us regardless of our reserves.
mircea_popescu: what happens if A is leveraged 1:1 and owns 100 contracts and B is leveraged 2:1 and "owns" 400 contracts, if
that "
the auction is
triggered" undocumented bug springs into auction ? can A's wholly-owned contracts be
touched by B's insanity ?
wywialm: if price moves far enough,
the auction serves as a circuit-breaker. Essentially,
the only risk lies not in a noisy market or irrational, but in a large, certain but unforseen, and fundamental jump in
the price
mircea_popescu: we're not discussing here
the ideal case where "the liquidated position is small enough". we're discussing here interesting cases, when you have a noisy market and a bunch of agents
that act irrationally.
wywialm: if
the liquidated position is small enough,
then liquidating on
the market is seamless; if it's large, here comes
the auction.
the orders are gathered during a certain period of
time, which may be extended, without
time priority
wywialm: returning for a while
to
the 'market's no good' argument
wywialm: well, certainly
the fiat currency system makes
the working of derivatives exchanges much easier
mircea_popescu: essentially, you see what
the big boys are doing, and figure you'll just do it yourself. except -
the big boys can do
things BECAUSE
they are
the big boys, ie,
there's bernanke
there
to "save
the economy". you aren't, and i can lean on you. moreover,
the big boys don't ever do
this 2:1
thing.
they do a little margin, and as private financing, which is exactly how you should be doing it also.
wywialm: from
the insurance fund, replenished from commissions
mircea_popescu: and no, you can't fucking liquidate on
the market,
think about it for a moment.
the very reason you are liquidating in
the first place is
that
the market's no good.
mircea_popescu: "the exchange covers
the losses" out of what ? you're not fabulously rich afaik.
mircea_popescu: This in
the happy case where
the exchange doesn't attempt
to autoliquidate positions, creating all
the noise surges you could wish for.
mircea_popescu: Bu is now way
the fuck underwater, exchange
takes his order off also.
mircea_popescu: MP comes in and sells 1 X at 10.1.
the price for X is now 10.1
wywialm: if nevertheless,
the auction price is such
that
the person's losses exceed his maintenance margin,
the exchange covers
the losses
mircea_popescu: exchange advances 2:1 margin
to Be, backed by "its" cash.
mircea_popescu: exchange
trades symbol X. participant Be[ar] comes in and deposits 1000 coins. participant Bu[ll] comes in and deposits 1000 coins.
wywialm: this means
that continuous
trading is halted, orders are gathered and order book is balanced
wywialm: second, if it happens
that
the market will move significantly impacted by
this liquidation,
the auction is
triggered
wywialm: first, if
the position holder's losses approach his maintenance margin level, his entire position is liquidated on
the market
wywialm: ok, let me
take it directly c) no, in no case
the actual deposits are used as a coverage.
The risk management has following steps:
mircea_popescu: mkay, let's detail
this for
the benefit of
the kids reading logs.
wywialm: at any rate, margin is unavoidable when one
trades in futures contracts -
the short leg's losses can always exceed any deposit
wywialm: no, certainly not. c) what do you mean by 'position split' and what is
the relation of it
to leverage?
mircea_popescu: they paid me.
this doesn't make
the model more workable.
wywialm: a) i'll
try
to proceed
to explain everything i know about; b) if
that's
the case,
then indeed i'll
try
to speak more clearly
wywialm: beggining from
the last, c-1) yes, and as far as i remember, you removed a 'scam' warning from
them
shinohai: mod6
they sell "crumbs"
too so I wonder if a
trail of
those leads bimbos
to your door?
mircea_popescu: and c-1) have you looked into
the history of icbit.se which did
the exact same
thing and its
trampling is discussed in early
trilema ?
mircea_popescu: wywialm a) you're sure about something you've not explained ; b) you are forcing me
to read between
the lines which is
the opposite of competence ; c) if what you mean is
that you steal everyone's deposited cash
to do mutually-financed margin, what happens when a position split 50/50 (allowing you, possibly, somewhere close
to 2x margin) suddenly moves in choppy
trading
to 85/15 split
mircea_popescu: was one of
the lulzy moments in costa rica, day after landing
there, me spends with local bimbos, next day, supermarket, bimbo bread, o.O
wywialm: i'm not sure
that i understand what you mean. i offer margin as i believe
that
the liquidation mechanism (including auction) will make sure
that
the losses do not exceed
the deposits
mod6: <+mircea_popescu> shinohai you ever had bimbo bread ? << first
time I saw
this in a supermarcado i was like "ha!
they don't even know..."
wywialm: so
that bitcoin is
the home currency
wywialm: i.e. each contract corresponds
to $100
wywialm: all futures and options have fixed USD notional value, each of
them is margined separately,
though portfolio-based margining is coming soon
wywialm: it utilises
two matching models: continuous
trading and auction,
the latter being
triggered around market settlement and around significant market moves
mircea_popescu: explain
that part. how are
they designed,
these instruments.
mircea_popescu: wywialm nice, but
this isn't what i have in mind when i hear "economic design".
wywialm: to recall main points from
the previous exposition:
the exchange employs gpg messaging (following
the MPEx standards) and allows
to
trade financially-settled futures and options initially on BTCUSD exchange rate.
mircea_popescu: pretty shitty wonderbread, but always good for a lulz, make
teh galz have it.
shinohai: Bodegas are
the only place
to get fresh ingredients for anything around here, except when farmer's markets are open.
mircea_popescu: ;;later
tell mike_c hey, danielpbarron can't log into eulorum because something with cookies. anything change ?
a111: Logged on 2016-04-20 18:36 wywialm: Quedex aims
to offer FX futures and options, initially at least
wywialm: Quedex aims
to offer FX futures and options, initially at least
☟︎ wywialm: i designed
the exchange, yes - as i said
then, all
the economic and
transactional aspects are designed by me.
PeterL: wywialm what is
traded on your exchange?
wywialm: for all practical purposes, i represent both
the exchange and
the market making, and it's more
than a half year since my announcement. none of
this, of course, is meant
to imply
that you should support anything i have
to offer, i just
try
to clarify
mircea_popescu: the notion
that i'd support such a
thing is plainly outrageous.
mircea_popescu: what has happened since you first mentioned it
to lukewarm reception is
that
the person doing it has still not done his half year of log reading and humble wot beginings.
wywialm: i did not say
that i need
this money. also, it is not an offer for investing right now, just a check whether you will find anything interesting in it for you. if yes, i could go into greater detail how
this is
tested, how is going
to be
tested, etc.
punkman: phf: so now idiots are going
to look at
the past couple of months and point at patterns, "where's
the 50btc account creations!" << and
this was 1 year ago
PeterL: is
there any benefit from splitting a
transaction into multiple parts? seems like it would be most efficient
to just do it all at once?
punkman: phf: meanwhile couple of months ago mp explicitly said
that he's starting a process of divesting from bitcoin,
that was before bitbet, before ~anybody~ had voiced any kind of objections
to anything << "divesting" came after "A miner problem"
☟︎ mircea_popescu: so basically "i have
this untested
thing we baked
together with some greenhorns
that aren't in
the wot but wouldn't mind using me - wouldn't you like
to give us money ?"
wywialm: :) i could invite F.MPIF
to join
the market making operations
mircea_popescu: squarely ignoring
the fundamental part -
that
they should be left behind,
that
they're
the scum in
the engine and
the gout in
the knight.
a111: Logged on 2016-04-20 16:27 solrodar: but when I first came across it a year or so ago, I got
the impression
that 2012 was
the what bliss in
that dawn
to be alive
mircea_popescu:
http://btcbase.org/log/2016-04-20#1454047 << no. 2012 was
the year every dog with a flea in his beard could pretend
to humanity.
then 2013 brought
the requirement
to actually not be poor, and 2016 brought
the requirement
to not be stupid, and common folk are all butthurt over being left behind
☝︎ mircea_popescu: wywialm good for you but what's
this
to do with f.mpif ?
a111: Logged on 2016-04-20 16:20 phf: both are fledgling processes, self contained by implicit
tmsr rules. as economic activities
they could never
the less grow and gradually eat more of
the outside world
mircea_popescu:
http://btcbase.org/log/2016-04-20#1454044 <<
the principle is sound and very close
to home.
the unforeseen obstacle is, of course, people. specifically it
turns out it's a lot harder
than expected
to distinguish
the people who'd like
to be involved from
the people who have any busienss being involved.
the sad realisation is
that
the world changed A LOT over
the past few decades, and not for
the better.
☝︎ mircea_popescu: wywialm well it's a sad
time for f.mpif, what with bitbet going. but i guess maybe ? what've you got ?
a111: Logged on 2016-04-20 15:45 solrodar: yeah, so I'm not saying it was a ponzi, or any other kind of scam, just
that he wasn't being entirely up-front about what was going on
mircea_popescu: this is some version of
the "tree in
the forest" argument.
PeterL: or is it only a ponzi once it gets bigger
than
the operator?
mircea_popescu: if it's not larger
than
the operator
then what is it ?
PeterL: I suppose a ponzi could be closed cleanly if done while it is still very small? If
the operator kiscks in enough money
to close it before it grows bigger
than his pockets?
mircea_popescu: if it weren't for
this, it wouldn't even be a bad
thing, everyone'd do it.
mircea_popescu: it can not.
that's
the only important attribute of a ponzi -
that it can not be closed down cleanly.
mircea_popescu: the reason ponzi collapses is because ~it can not continue~.
that's it. if he could have, maddof would have closed down his ponzi cleanly. he can not. if it could have,
the usg would have closed down its social securities, or "us financial system" or "real estate values" ponzies cleanly
mircea_popescu: the reason ponzi collapses is not because ~someone wants
to~.
that's
the angle ponzi masters ~push~, and lazy, retarded ignoramuses like yourself lap up.
a111: Logged on 2016-04-20 15:30 solrodar: but you know how ponzi schemes usually claim
to have some undisclosed source of income
mircea_popescu:
http://btcbase.org/log/2016-04-20#1454022 << you are also using words you do not master
the meaning of. successful closure is sufficient and definitive proof something WAS NOT a pyramid scheme.
the reason should be obvious, if you're not lazy and retarded. you however are, no matter what your mommy may have mendaciously
told you, both lazy and retarded, so let's explain :
☝︎ mircea_popescu: this isn't something
to whine about.
this is something
to motherfucking fix. starting years ago, but 2nd best -
today.
mircea_popescu: it's a sad property of EVERYONE IN BITCOIN
that mp is in
the classical position of zeus, where if
the whole mt olympus picks up
the other side of
the ring, he can still
throw
them all over
the fucking sky.
mircea_popescu: it doesn't attach
to me, or
to mpex. i'm doing
things. it attaches
to you, personally : you're not good enough. and you sure as hell fore
that reason do not belong opining in here. go learn how
to do
things
that mpex may consider listing.
a111: Logged on 2016-04-20 15:26 solrodar: 3) and on which practically nothing was
traded except
the shares of
the exchange itself