1002100+ entries in 0.804s
jurov: i don't remember, it was months ago... but as you see, at least on decryption you don't have any parameter
there
jurov: i needed
the second key
to be used in chroot anyway so i did not hax around it
mircea_popescu: actually
there was a nightmare situation with one customer who somehow changed his default key in between having it registered and sending
the first payment
jurov: sgornick, python-gnupg does not support
that, sorry
sgornick: mpex.py needs an option
to specify which key
to sign with -- for gpg.encrypt( , , sign=signer_fingerprint)
mircea_popescu: i'd much prefer something a page or
two long but it doesn't seem possible
mircea_popescu: more like an "in general".
that
thing's monstrously large by now
sgornick: > you can link
to specific sections in
the faq <-- Fixed.
mircea_popescu: (also, you can link
to specific sections in
the faq by c/p ing
the question number link)
mircea_popescu: on
the other hand, if you use a properly set up anon key nobody can ever figure it out, even if
they owned all
the servers in
the world.
sgornick: mircea_popescu: If I used for
trading on MPEx my main GPG key
that I use for WoT (and has my e-mail address), can someone figure out what assets I own?
mircea_popescu: heh
that's just a
theory. in practice,
they're very involved.
FabianB_: macau is like hong kong an SAR, so
the chinese central gov shouldn't have much
to do with it
FabianB_: is
there more
to read on
that macau story?
FabianB_: yeah,
traditional banks suck at international money
transfer
mircea_popescu: provided, of course,
the fucking chinese stop hussling people at macau.
mircea_popescu: it's inconvenient and really mostly a relic from
the pre ww2 days
FabianB_: so
the 3rd party (bank) just hands it over
to some other bank, or buys currency at
the forex market for it or something
FabianB_: well, credit needs
to be executed some
time
FabianB_: and
then
they do bulk
transfer?
FabianB_: mircea_popescu: what's
the usual?
FabianB_: and instant
transaction etc., can send
the goods next day and not in 10 days when international wire arives..
mircea_popescu: (such as, for instance, if
the company goes bankrupt you can't be clawbacked
mircea_popescu: but out of
the bank savings you can buy a lot of options insurance.
FabianB_: mircea_popescu: yeah,
that's cutting
the bank fees, but introduces
the risk of volatility, if i don't use option insurance
mircea_popescu: cutting out
the (significant) bank fees for letters of credit
mircea_popescu: FabianB_ would most definitely be worth it in
that scenario.
jurov: someday i ought
to do myself few cups of extra strong coffee and do
the maths...
FabianB_: thinking about if btc would be worth if i'm a producer of some goods e.g. in china, for shippment
to eur/us, e.g. payment in btc now, shippment in europe arives 40 days later, btc price in
that
time probably moved a lot
mircea_popescu: so baked in is a convenience cost
too. people don't seem
to be doing nearly enough of
their own offering, much prefering
the instant execution of bot offer.
FabianB_: but maybe i'll get back
to
that jurov if i really need it
mircea_popescu: an important point
tho is
that you don't HAVE
to
take
the bot offers
jurov: i'm in a bit of a risky mood and don't
think price will be back at 12 in 4 days, would create approriate options for you as a proper broker would... but my head is spinning already
mircea_popescu: this has happened like i dunno, a dozen
time in btc
this year
FabianB_: so i guess on
traditional forex options have smaller price differences, coz e.g. usd<->eur price changes are smaller
FabianB_: ok, many ppl expect it
to go
towards 12 again
gribble: BTCUSD
ticker | Best bid: 10.46505, Best ask: 10.51980, Bid-ask spread: 0.05475, Last
trade: 10.46502, 24 hour volume: 96030.81201998, 24 hour low: 9.74000, 24 hour high: 10.83883, 24 hour vwap: 10.18519
jurov: fabian, i'd rephrase it so
that nobody dares
to offer
them at better price
mircea_popescu: sgornick i guess you have a point. i recently switched my blog from romanian
to english, so i kinda intend
to make it
the source for results. but i guess a link can't hurt anything.
jurov: unless
there's some gentlemen who creates some for you ar such price
sgornick: A good place for
the results
to also be posted would be in
that
thread.
FabianB_: so if usd price is at 12 in 4 days i could calculate what kind of long call i should buy
to insure
that
jurov: mircea, why long puts in
this case?
they will get cheaper if btcusd rises, no?
FabianB_: if i have 100 btc now, spend 10 btc now and coz current price is 10 usd i send 100 usd
to mtgox which will arive in a few days
mircea_popescu: but in what you say is implicit you do care which way prices go.
that's why buying insurance for price changes makes sense.
FabianB_: but since fiat -> mtgox
takes a while, i don't know how much fiat i have
to send
to mtgox
FabianB_: hmm.. what if i dont care which way prices go, i just want
to have same amount of btc in
the end
mircea_popescu: if you expect price
to rise
then you want either long puts or short calls
FabianB_: but expect price between now and in 4 days
to rise
FabianB_: trying
to figure out if it makes sense
to buy options if i buy something with btc
today (at a usd price), but in
the end don't want
to have less btc in my wallet, so buyin new btc few days later
jurov: so if you buy now at 0.277 ,
the price must be larger
than ~13.7 for you
to profitably exercise
FabianB_: my guess was
that with C100 and 10 usd strike break even would be 0.1
gribble: BTCUSD
ticker | Best bid: 10.41001, Best ask: 10.44000, Bid-ask spread: 0.02999, Last
trade: 10.41000, 24 hour volume: 104809.98028766, 24 hour low: 9.74000, 24 hour high: 10.70000, 24 hour vwap: 10.20577
mircea_popescu: "I also just got off
the phone with Philip Moustakis. Nice guy. We chatted for about an hour."
rg: that's
the guy who messaged me on bitcointalk
mircea_popescu: Maybe Phil will even sign up and answer your questions (but
that may be a conflict of interest for him).
mircea_popescu: Diablo-D3 roger ver was detained in macau airport. apparently is on his way
to hk atm
smickles: some sort of international
travel
thing
smickles: Diablo-D3: a stamp was in
the wrong place, apparently
smickles: mircea_popescu: so i could parse
the stat easily?
smickles: what's
this statjson i heard mentioned?
smickles: well, i suppose i do already have half of
the code for just such a bot already written
smickles: well, it doesn't work so well if you run out of capital
to hedge with :(
mircea_popescu: i mean, if you believe
this you can go put your own CALL offers in
there, neh ?
mircea_popescu: the rational
thing for people
to do is go in
the midmarket imo
smickles: like right now, with
this idea, it should offer a worse price for all
those puts, and a better price on
the related calls
smickles: you wouldn't need
to
trust either, you should be able
to encourage people
to buy and sell your bot into a positon
that makes btc when
the market moves up down or sideways
mircea_popescu: what you're saying does make sense, in general. just, btc is yet
too low volume and i don't
trust half
the quant analysis results
mircea_popescu: then i'd prolly prefer adding more capital
than following
the mkt
mircea_popescu: atm i have
the capital
to anchor. if it becomes a problem and
the bot is
too often sold out
mircea_popescu: how would it know what's more
time-resistant neutral position ?
smickles: shouldn't it adjust prices
to
try
to acheive
the most
time resistant neutral position?,
that way you can
take advantage of
the imbalance in
the bot's portfolio and offer better prices
to
the opposing positions and worse prices
to
the ones
that add more risk
to you
mircea_popescu: if it's one of
the people who sold a lot in
the dump it makes sense