log☇︎
1001100+ entries in 0.729s
mircea_popescu: well that's an incorrect representation. obviously it may be convenient, but it's not the case.
BTC-Mining: I don't see how GLBSE is the ship. The ship is Gigavps's mining operation.
mircea_popescu: it USED to be known.
mircea_popescu: yes. so no, the ship's location is not known.
BTC-Mining: Probably because they consist on thousands upon thousands of tickets looking like: "I haven't received my balance yet. Why?"
mircea_popescu: glbse.com is no longer responding, the website itself.
mircea_popescu: not what i said tho.
BTC-Mining: Nefario still talked to a few people recently. But doesn't answer publicly or to support requests.
BTC-Mining: The ship's location is known. Who the cargo is to be delivered to is not known.
mircea_popescu: but the ship itself is lost at sea.
mircea_popescu: sure, the concept of spices, or the concept of cargo, or the ship's destination still exists.
mircea_popescu: that's the ship.
BTC-Mining: Gigavps keeps track of all payments due and if information is released, will pay all what is due.
mircea_popescu: if it's not heard from in X time, the company is dissolved as worthless.
mircea_popescu: basically, the reasoning is this : there was a company organised to finance a ship sent to wherever.
BTC-Mining: That's the thing, they would be direct shares with Gigamining should the information be released.
mircea_popescu: some direct thing, maybe, but glbse shares, no.
mircea_popescu: nah, if it doesn't come to its senses by dec 1st it's not getting reinstated.
mircea_popescu: enough for what tho ?
BTC-Mining: Hmm, but the data does exist. Wouldn't a simple backup of the tables containing the data for the ETF be enough?
mircea_popescu: mpex isn't designed to be a sort of glbse
BTC-Mining: Keeping the data aside doesn't cost much logistically.
BTC-Mining: I would expect the obligation to be honored, wether the assets resurface in 1 day or 2 years.
BTC-Mining: But really, what bothers me is not the delisting (and trading stopping, which would be appropriate), but the complete deletion of data. The ETF has no terms reserving yourself the right to arbitrarily void the obligation.
mircea_popescu: Mitt Romney will be elected President of the USA
mircea_popescu: Barack Obama will be re-elected as the president of USA
BTC-Mining: I'm sure the outcome will be very clear.
BTC-Mining: Plus some people would certainly they got shares of X instead of Y.
mircea_popescu: well ok then
BTC-Mining: From one issue to the other.
BTC-Mining: The total amount of shares vary a lot.
BTC-Mining: Since AML was not required and the majority probably claimed...
BTC-Mining: That he knows matter not. Just that each issuer receives all the information Nefario was aware of, and that they have the correct information.
mircea_popescu: and they mostly held everything, being re
mircea_popescu: and seeing how there's maybe a coupla dozen actual people with actual investments
mircea_popescu: ya but he wouldn't know this
BTC-Mining: As the correct issuer would not have the correct information.
BTC-Mining: eh, I'd consider that as information not released.
mircea_popescu: i would guess he just mixes the shareholder tables
BTC-Mining: It's the most blown out of proportion screw up someone could do.
BTC-Mining: How does that sound?
BTC-Mining: Including the bet.
BTC-Mining: He'll accidentally provoke a vacuum metastability event, resulting in a stabler state propagating throughout the Universe at the speed of light, defining new constants for the laws of physics, rendering all Earth and its matter... different.
mircea_popescu: im mostly curious to find what exact way does nefario find to both fuck up in some entirely unexpected novel way and also render this bet moot in one fell swoop
BTC-Mining: No, because he received the contact information from an unkown amount of persons but no issuers were forwarded that info. So even theorically, he has not released the data.
mircea_popescu: ok, i guess i can go with that for 5 btc
mircea_popescu: well so theoretically he's done it already ><
BTC-Mining: Let's say, if any of gigamining, asicminer or bitbond have together a total of at least 2 or more complaints from members with 50+ posts that they submitted their info but are not included in the released list, or the information for any of those 3 asset is not released at all by February 1st, it shall be deamed the information was not released.
BTC-Mining: Yes, but if the contact information was not given, it's impossible to release that info to issuers anyway. But technically, that means Nefario would have released the full list if he could have done so, so theorically, it would be done.
mircea_popescu: but i mean... if not even half the shareholders are reinstated the thing is moot anyway
BTC-Mining: I have no idea what proportion of holders gave their info to be sent to issuer. I would go more by the lack of complaints that some submitted their info and weren't included in the list sent to issuer.
mircea_popescu: mkay. so " by feb 1st more than half the shareholders are reinstated in at least two of gigamining, asicminer, bitbond as a result of nefario releasing the lists to the respective asset owners"
BTC-Mining: Unless mircea wants an escrow for this one.
BTC-Mining: Mutual trust?
kakobrekla: so who is going to escrow the bet
mircea_popescu: what were decent-ish assets there ? giga, asicminer and what'd be a third ?
BTC-Mining: feb 1st? I'd bet you 5 BTC it is released by then. (For those who submitted their information, not in full.)
mircea_popescu: mk, so wanna bet the shareholder lists aren't released by feb 1st ?
BTC-Mining: After that I'd probably start to assume he managed to lose the database after closing GLBSE
BTC-Mining: Somewhere in the next weeks to 3 months
mircea_popescu: so when exactly do you expect the shareholder lists to be released ?
BTC-Mining: and he seems to want to send all balances out before then giving the addresses to issuers.
BTC-Mining: He also managed to screw up payments on the 16th
mircea_popescu: but why wouyld it take another month ?
BTC-Mining: Because since Nefario did not disappear with the funds, I still believe it is in the "realm of probable" that he'll release the information, and not in the "realm of possible"
BTC-Mining: At least for mine. I was one of the first paid out I think.
mircea_popescu: so what makes you think that the lists will be released, but after december ?
mircea_popescu: much more importantly tho, were all the payments sorta early oct ?
BTC-Mining: Should be like that, considering that's how bitcoin transactions work...
mircea_popescu: if i pay you 100 btc, is it right that my program takes 100 btc to your address and 900 btc to another address of mine ?
BTC-Mining: But claims are included in payment chains for much larger amounts. It is yet to see if users received all of those without more claims.
mircea_popescu: but anyway, a key consideration is that those shareholder lists are only useful early on. they decay so to speak
mircea_popescu: i see ~1300 btc ? (why not add a TOTAL at the end ?)
BTC-Mining: Let me fetch that
BTC-Mining: From only declared claims which are a lot fewer than the payment chains seen those claims are included in.
mircea_popescu: how much does it all add up to, got al ink handy ?
mircea_popescu: i recall you had a thread about it
mircea_popescu: did he pay more than what theymos held ?
mircea_popescu: (in fact, it may well be argued nefario stole the few k btc he had of glbse money, then insisted theymos return the few hundred he held, then used that to pay SOME people and end of story there)
mircea_popescu: BTC-Mining paid some people originally. that was weeks ago. then he stopped payng, and now his site is gone.
mircea_popescu: bitcoinica's still not paid. people still entertain the notion they will get something back, obviously, but it's been what, half a year.
mircea_popescu: well... the way these things work is that there's some communication originally... but nothing comes of it.
BTC-Mining: If one day, the website had suddenly disappeared along with Nefario, that would be acceptable.
mircea_popescu: i think it's much like missing persons. those not found in twoo weeks are never found.
mircea_popescu: yet when it comes to booking losses... nobody thinks o look, five weeks that's five irl years
BTC-Mining: But seeing as he sent payments (the good amounts) to many and it's not completed after one month, it doesn't look like he lost the database. But he's been incredibly slow.
mircea_popescu: it's been a month already. november is another month. how much later than that ? 2014 ?
mircea_popescu: what can i tell you.
mircea_popescu: i guess the proceeds get donated.
BTC-Mining: What if the information is released at a later date?
gribble: BTCUSD ticker | Best bid: 10.80101, Best ask: 10.88754, Bid-ask spread: 0.08653, Last trade: 10.80100, 24 hour volume: 25732.98766624, 24 hour low: 10.58000, 24 hour high: 10.89000, 24 hour vwap: 10.75200
mircea_popescu: "I thought genjix had to eat catfood + bits of newspaper cause he was so poor ?" 0.0
smickles: wow, i'ven't the mind to understand that
mircea_popescu: "he also lied about having an OTC rating at the time if the transaction to get me to send first. I was knew and didn't know what OCT was then and was desperate for money so I foolishly agreed."
thestringpuller: i bet you manipulate the markets
mircea_popescu: it certainly seems to have broken the psychosis.
smickles: your sec sigline seems to be getting good exposure (for the forum)
mircea_popescu: of the old guys
smickles: or did he get taken out in some way?
mircea_popescu: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=121158.0 i coulda sworn somebody was doing this exactly